房子跌啊跌，什么时候会见底呢？
Housing market feels more pain, bottom not yet in sight
Tue Dec 23, 3:18 pm ET
WASHINGTON (AFP) – The US housing market, the epicenter (集中点，震中) of the global financial crisis, saw further declines last month, according to fresh data Tuesday suggesting the worst may not be over for the economy.
New home sales slipped 2.9 percent in the past month and fell 35.3 percent from a year earlier to an annual pace of 407,000 in November. That was the lowest level since January 1991.
While the report was grim, it contained a few bright spots. The median sales price rose 2.7 percent from the previous month to 220,400 dollars, even if that was 11 percent lower than a year ago.
Inventories on unsold homes fell 7.0 percent to 374,000. That was a drop of 25 percent from a year earlier.
Sales of existing US homes slumped a further 8.6 percent, according to a separate report from the National Association of Realtors.
Sales of homes and apartments fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.49 million units in November from a downward revised level of 4.91 million in October.
The was 10.6 percent below the pace in November 2007 and reflected the ongoing woes of the sector since a bubble burst around two years ago.
"The home sales market took another major negative hit in November, with sharp declines in new and existing home sales, declines which put further downward pressure on prices, and upward pressure on inventories," said Brian Bethune, economist at IHS Global Insight.
He said the situation indicates "negative business cycle momentum (势头) (that) persists for an excruciating (折磨人的) length of time."
"A large inventory (存货) overhang (过剩) continues to depress prices," said Aaron Smith at Economy.com.
"Sales volumes will be supported by more distress sales and lower mortgage (抵押) rates, but it is clear from this (existing home sales) report that the hurdle to recovery is high."
The NAR said the median existing home sales price was 181,300 dollars in November, down 13.2 percent from November 2007.
"There remains a significant downward distortion in the current price from a large number of distress sales at discounted prices," the group said.
The reports coincided with (与......相符) another showing US economic activity contracted at a 0.5 percent pace in the third quarter, according to government data unrevised from an estimate last month.
The Commerce Department final estimate on gross domestic product (GDP) for the July-September quarter is believed to be the start of a steep downturn for the world's largest economy that intensified in the past few months.
Earlier this month, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the panel recognized as the official arbiter of business cycles, said a recession began in December 2007 even though there had not been two consecutive quarters of declines.
"This report is largely old news," said John Ryding at RDQ Economics, who said the fourth-quarter data will be bleak: "Given signs that the recession has deepened in the current quarter, we look for around a 6.0 percent drop in real GDP."
The White House acknowledged as well that the fourth quarter will be grimmer.
"The fourth quarter, we know because of the credit crisis, the stand-still (停顿) in credit as markets froze up and the financial market turmoil (混乱), will be significantly weaker" than the third, spokesman Tony Fratto said.
NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said there will be negative consequences if Congress fails to enact a new stimulus including the housing market.
"Falling home prices would lead to faster contraction in consumer spending and further deterioration in bank balance sheets (资产负债表)," he said.
"More importantly, falling home values would lead to higher loan defaults, including those recently modified distressed mortgages."
The group said it hoped low interest rates would help revive the market. Last week, Freddie Mac reported the 30-year mortgage rate fell to 5.19 percent -- the lowest on record since the series began in 1971.